SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
Chicago (4-4 SU and ATS) at San Francisco (3-5, 5-2-1 ATS)
Coach Mike Singletary will lead his 49ers against the team with which he built his Hall of Fame career when the Bears come to town for an NFC contest at Candlestick Park.
After cashing in its first four games of the season (3-1 SU), San Francisco has lost four in a row SU and gone 1-2-1 ATS in that span. The 49ers have been outscored by an average of 12.3 ppg during the skid (30.3-18), though they did put up some points Sunday before losing 34-27 to the Titans as a 4½-point home favorite. QB Alex Smith, who helped engineer a comeback that fell just short at Houston three weeks ago and who kept San Francisco competitive at Indianapolis two weeks ago, had three INTs and two fumbles (one lost) against Tennessee.
Coming off a 30-6 home rout of Cleveland, Chicago got belted 41-21 by Arizona as a two-point home favorite Sunday, falling to 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four outings. The Bears’ acquisition of Jay Cutler (14 TDs, 12 INTs) hasn’t quite panned out, as he has six TD tosses in his last four games offset by seven INTs and a lost fumble. Cutler hasn’t been helped by a running attack averaging just 90.5 yards per game, 28th in the league.
Chicago is 1-3 SU and ATS on the road, while San Francisco has followed up two straight blowout home wins and covers over division-rivals Seattle (23-10) and St. Louis (35-0) with back to back SU and ATS defeats at Candlestick, as the Niners preceded Sunday’s setback to Tennessee with a 45-10 home loss to Atlanta in Week 5.
These teams have split the cash in six meetings this decade, with Chicago going 4-2 SU. The favorite and the home team have gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in those contests. In the most recent battle in 2006, Chicago rolled 41-10 as a 16-point home chalk. The SU winner is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams, 8-0 ATS in Chicago’s games this year and 5-2-1 ATS in San Francisco’s eight contests in 2009.
The 49ers are 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games as a favorite (2-2 this year), but they are otherwise on pointspread upswings of 10-4-2 since Singletary took over as coach last year (8-3-2 last 13), 4-1-1 against the NFC, 6-2-1 after a SU loss and 5-2 in November.
The Bears are on positive spread-covering runs of 4-1 after a SU loss and 11-5 after a non-cover, but they carry negative ATS streaks of 1-5 on the road, 0-5-1 as a road pup, 1-3-1 on Thursday, 2-5-1 in conference play and 2-5 in November.
The over for San Francisco is on streaks of 7-3 at Candlestick, 12-4 as a home chalk and 7-1 with the 49ers laying three points or less, and the over is 31-14-1 in Chicago’s last 46 games against NFC foes. The under for the Bears, though, is on rolls of 9-4 on the highway, 36-17-2 as a road pup and 5-1 after a SU loss. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five regular-season meetings and is 7-2 in the last nine clashes (including four preseason games).
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Bowling Green (4-5 SU and ATS) at Miami (Ohio) (1-9, 5-5 ATS)
The Falcons will try to continue their recent surge when they make the trek to Fred Yager Stadium for a Mid-American Conference East Division battle with Miami (Ohio).
Bowling Green rallied from a 29-16 fourth-quarter deficit at Buffalo nine days ago and pulled out a shocking 30-29 victory as a three-point road underdog. Tyler Sheehan hit star WR Freddie Barnes with an 18-yard scoring pass with 39 seconds to play to steal the win, and Barnes finished with eight catches for 122 yards. Although Bowling Green got outgained 411-361, including 262-48 on the ground, it did score three rushing touchdowns.
The Redhawks rallied from a 31-13 third-quarter deficit to take a 32-21 lead at Temple a week ago tonight, but they failed on a two-point conversion attempt after their final touchdown with 2:36 to play. The Owls then marched down the field and kicked the game-winning field goal with three seconds left, prevailing 34-32. However, Miami did cover easily as a 17-point underdog, improving to 5-1 ATS in its last six (3-0 ATS in the last three), all as an underdog.
Bowling Green has now scored at least 30 points in four of its last five games, but the defense has surrendered an average of 39.6 ppg in the last five after yielding just 19.3 ppg in the first three contests. Sheehan has passed for 2,990 yards (64.1 percent completion rate) for 16 TDs and six INTs, while Barnes leads the nation with 107 catches and 1,176 receiving yards, and he’s second nationally with 10 receiving TDs.
Miami, which began the season with seven straight losses before upsetting Toledo 31-24 as a five-point underdog on Halloween, scored a total of 71 points in its first seven games (10.1 ppg) but has tallied 85 in the last three (28.3 ppg). During this three-game surge, the offense has produced an average of 417 total ypg, nearly all of it through the air (372.7 passing ypg).
The Redhawks are on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, with all three being outright upset wins, including last year’s 27-20 victory at Bowling Green as a 9½-point road underdog – Miami’s only win over a Division I-A program in 2008. The Redhawks are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 series clashes, and the underdog has scored the upset each of the last four years.
The Falcons are in ATS funks of 2-5 overall, 9-20 as a favorite and 2-7 when laying between 3½ and 10 points, but they’re also on positive pointspread runs of 13-2 on the road (2-2 this year), 6-2 as a road chalk, 4-1 against losing teams and 7-1 in November. Despite its current 5-1 ATS run from the underdog role, Miami is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight November contests and 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 against teams with a losing record.
For Bowling Green, the under is on stretches of 6-2 on the road, 4-1 as a road chalk and 6-1 after SU victory. Miami has topped the total in five straight against losing teams, six of eight MAC games and four of five in November. Finally, the total has alternated the last four years in this rivalry, with the last two in Miami going over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Ball State (1-8, 4-4 ATS) at Northern Illinois (6-3, 5-3 ATS)
Northern Illinois, which is riding a three-game winning streak, looks to remain in the hunt for the MAC’s West Division title when it welcomes one-win Ball State to Huskie Stadium.
The Cardinals followed up their first victory of the season – a 29-27 triumph over winless Eastern Michigan as a 2½-point underdog – with a 20-17 home loss to Ohio on Halloween, but they covered as a 5½-point underdog. Ball State started last season with 12 consecutive wins, then dropped the MAC championship game to Buffalo, got clobbered in the International Bowl by Tulsa and has lost eight of its first nine games this year. During the 1-10 SU slump, the Cardinals are 4-6 ATS in lined action.
Northern Illinois destroyed Eastern Michigan 50-6 last Thursday, easily covering as a 21½-point home favorite. During their three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS), the Huskies have averaged 34.7 points and 378.7 yards per game (298.3 rushing ypg) while allowing just 12.7 points and 251.3 total yards per game (40 rushing ypg). Since a season-opening 28-20 loss at Wisconsin as a 16½-point underdog, the Huskies are 6-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in lined games, and they’ve been favored in each of their last six outings.
Northern Illinois has scored 27 points or more in seven of its last eight games while allowing 21 points or less in six of those contests. Conversely, Ball State has managed 17 points or less in seven of its last 10 going back to last year’s bowl loss while giving up an average of 30.5 ppg during this stretch.
The Cardinals blasted Northern Illinois 45-14 as an eight-point home favorite last season, finishing with a 529-275 edge in total offense (310-115 passing). Prior to last year, the visitor had won four in a row in this rivalry, including Ball State’s 27-21 victory in 2007, though it failed to cash as a 9½-point road favorite in that one.
Despite its dismal SU record, Ball State carries several positive ATS trends, including 20-7 on the road, 11-4 in November, 18-5 versus winning teams, 11-5 as an underdog, 4-1 as a road underdog and 10-2 as an underdog of more than 10 points. Also, the ‘dog is 8-3 ATS in Ball State’s last 11 games. Northern Illinois is on pointspread upticks of 3-1 at home (all as a favorite, 10-4-1 in November, 4-1 on Thursday and 8-3 against teams with a losing record. However, the Huskies have failed to cover in nine of their last 11 as a favorite of more than 10 points.
Ball State is on “under” streaks of 6-3 overall, 7-2 on the road, 7-2 in November, 13-6 as a double-digit underdog and 4-1 on artificial turf. For the Huskies, the under is on runs of 33-15-2 overall, 12-3-1 at home, 17-7-1 in MAC play and 18-6-2 after a SU victory. Conversely, five of the last seven meetings in this rivalry have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(23) South Florida (6-2, 3-3 ATS) at Rutgers (6-2, 3-3 ATS)
Two teams coming off impressive upset victories get together at Rutgers Stadium, where the surging Scarlet Knights host South Florida in a nationally televised Big East battle.
South Florida ripped off five straight wins to begin the season, then got clipped by Top 25 foes Cincinnati (34-17 at home) and Pitt (41-14 on the road). However, the third time against a ranked opponent proved to be the charm for the Bulls, who knocked off then-No. 20 West Virginia 30-19 as a 2½-point home underdog in their most recent game Oct. 30. USF outgained the Mountaineers 421-323 overall, including a 189-118 rushing advantage.
After two dismal performances in the losses to Cincinnati and Pitt, freshman QB B.J. Daniels came up huge against West Virginia, passing for 232 yards and three TDs while also running for 104 yards on 14 carries. South Florida has scored 30 points or more in six of its last nine games and has averaged 36.6 ppg in its last seven wins but 15.5 ppg in its losses to Pitt and Cincinnati. Defensively, the Bulls have held nine of their last 11 opponents to 20 points or less and has surrendered a total of 66 points (11 ppg) in its six wins this year but gave up 75 points (37.5 ppg) in the two losses to Pitt and Cincinnati.
Rutgers has won two in a row and four of its last six, and like South Florida, both of the Scarlet Knights’ losses came against Cincinnati (47-15 at home in the season opener on Sept. 7) and Pitt (24-17 at home on Oct. 16). The Scarlet Knights have been idle since Oct. 31, when they shocked UConn 28-24 as a 7½-point road underdog. In that contest, Rutgers returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown but gave up a 21-10 four-quarter lead, falling behind 24-21 with 38 seconds to play. However, one play after the ensuing kickoff, freshman QB Tom Savage hit Tim Brown with a short pass, and Brown went the distance for an 81-yard game-winning score with 22 seconds to play.
Savage has 1,341 passing yards with eight TDs and just one INT since taking over the starting quarterback job, and he leads an offense that’s averaged 33.3 ppg in its six wins but just 16 ppg in its two losses. The defense has given up 11.5 ppg in the six victories, but surrendered 71 to Pitt and Cincinnati. Since starting last year 1-5 SU, Rutgers have won 13 of its last 15 games
When South Florida entered the Big East in 2005, it routed Rutgers 45-31 as a 2½-point road underdog. Since then, though, the Scarlet Knights have reeled off three straight wins and two straight spread-covers in this rivalry, including last year’s 49-16 rout as an eight-point road pup, with the Bulls committing six turnovers. The underdog has covered in all four meetings (3-1 SU) between these schools.
South Florida is on ATS runs of 6-3 overall, 3-1 as a favorite, 5-2 after a bye and 4-1 in November, but the Bulls have failed to cover in four straight Thursday contests, 11 of 15 against winning teams and five of seven as a road chalk. Rutgers carries positive pointspread streaks of 10-4-1 overall, 5-2 in Big East play, 5-2 on Thursday, 6-1 as an underdog, 8-2-1 after a SU win, 6-0-1 after a non-cover and 6-3 after a bye, but the Knights are have failed to cover in all three of their home games this year.
The Bulls have topped the total in four straight games overall (all in Big East play) and seven of 10 after a bye, but the under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. The over is also 6-1 in Rutgers’ last seven Big East games, 11-4 in its last 15 in November, 4-0 in its last four on Thursday and 12-1 in its last 13 after a bye, but the under is 4-1 in the Knights’ last five overall (2-0 at home).
Finally, all four meetings between these teams have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Cleveland (5-3, 4-4 ATS) at Miami (6-1 SU and ATS)
Two of the league’s biggest stars go head to head for the first time this season, as LeBron James and the Cavaliers wrap up a three-game road trip against Dwyane Wade and the Heat at American Airlines Arena.
Cleveland is coming off Wednesday’s 102-93 victory at Orlando as a one-point road underdog, with James scoring a game-high 36 points and Mo Williams chipping in 28 points. Since dropping their first two games of the season to Boston (at home) and Toronto (on the road), the Cavaliers have won five of six (4-2 ATS). They’ve now won and cashed in three straight on the road.
Miami extended its winning streak three in a row (SU and ATS) with Tuesday’s 90-76 rout of Washington as a nine-point home favorite, as Wade poured in a game-high 41 points. Since a season-opening 115-93 rout of New York, the Heat have scored between 90 and 96 points in six straight games, and they’ve held five of their last six opponents to less than 90 points.
Cleveland took three of four from the Heat last year (2-2 ATS) and is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings, but just 4-3 ATS (all as a favorite).
Going back to last season, Cleveland is riding ATS streaks of 14-6 when playing on back-to-back nights, 7-2-1 as a road favorite and 13-4 when laying less than five points, but 5-9-1 overall, 3-7 on Thursday and 3-6-1 against the Southeast Division. Miami has covered in five of its last six home games (4-1 ATS this year), five straight against the East and four straight against the Central Division, but the Heat are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 on Tuesday.
Both teams went over the total in their season-openers but followed that up with six straight “unders” before Cleveland barely eked over the total last night in Orlando. The Cavaliers were involved in their highest-scoring contest last night (195 points), while four of the Heat’s six games have featured 184 combined points or fewer.
In this rivalry, the under is on runs of 13-6 overall and 10-4 in Miami. Additionally, the under is on streaks of 8-3 for Cleveland on the road, 7-1 for Cleveland as a road favorite, 4-0 for Miami at home, 5-1 for Miami against teams from the Central Division, 6-0 for Miami when playing on one day of rest and 21-18 for Miami on Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
Phoenix (8-1, 6-3 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (6-1, 2-5 ATS)
Following a brief stop at home last night, the scorching Suns return to the road once again as they pay their first visit of the season to the Staples Center for a Pacific Division clash with the well-rested Lakers.
Phoenix enjoyed a successful 4-1 SU and ATS Eastern Conference road trip, then came home Wednesday and throttled the Hornets 124-104 as a 6½-point favorite, the team’s fourth consecutive win and cover. The Suns spread the wealth in the win, as seven players – including all five starters – scored in double figures. Phoenix has now hit triple digits in every game this year, and dating to last season, it has reached the century mark in 12 straight games and 44 of 50 contests, tallying 109 or more 33 times.
Los Angeles has been off since Sunday’s 104-88 dismantling of New Orleans, easily covering as a 6½-point home favorite. It was the Lakers’ second straight spread-cover after starting the season 0-6 ATS. Phil Jackson’s crew has won five in a row, including consecutive double-digit home wins in their last two, and they’re averaging 108 ppg during the winning streak (48.7 percent shooting) while allowing 99.2 ppg (43.1 percent). Going back to last year’s playoffs, only twice in their last nine games have the Lakers allowed an opponent to score more than 98 points.
The Suns upset the Lakers 118-111 as a 4½-point home underdog in last year’s final meeting, ending L.A.’s four-game win streak (3-1 ATS) in this rivalry. The Lakers are still 6-3 ATS in the last nine series battles, but 2-3 ATS at home. In fact, the visitor is 7-3 ATS in the last 10.
While Phoenix is 5-1 SU and ATS on the road this year and has covered in four straight overall, it is still in ATS slumps of 5-16 on Thursday and 4-10-1 as an underdog of five to 10½ points (all on the highway). Los Angeles, which has been favored in every game this season, went 1-4 ATS in its final five games against divisional foes last year, but it is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 when playing after three or more days of rest and 15-6 ATS in its last 21 in the Thursday night marquee spotlight.
The Suns carry “over” trends of 4-1 overall, 5-0 on Thursday, 8-1 when playing on back-to-back nights and 23-10 as a road pup. Meanwhile, although they’ve topped the total in four of their last five overall, the Lakers are still on a bevy of “under” runs, including 20-7 at home, 11-5 against the Western Conference, 4-1 versus the Pacific Division and 35-16-1 as a favorite.
Finally, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 Suns-Lakers battles, including 4-1 at the Staples Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
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